A United Ireland Referendum Cannot Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Warn

A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."